Photo: Lenarc / Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Michigan_stadium.jpg) / CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/).
The unsettled “science” in evaluating quarterbacks in this week’s Fun and Games.
Analytics has taken over the sports world. From “Moneyball” to the 3-point shot revolution, sports franchises stuff their back offices with quants, algorithms, and spreadsheets.
Yet when it comes to the most critical position in all of sports – football’s elite quarterback – there’s no “trusting the science.”
Two headline-grabbing events this month drove that point home.
First, record-setting Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood was benched for poor performance. Record-setting not for any of his on-the-field achievements, mind you. Record setting for becoming perhaps the highest paid college athlete in U.S. history after signing for $12 million to play at The University of Michigan.
Then two weeks later Brock Purdy became the all-time highest passer rated quarterback in NFL history. His prior claim to fame? Earning the title of “Mr. Irrelevant”, the name given to the last player chosen in the NFL draft after he was chosen 262nd – and dead last – in 2022.
So if you’re keeping score at home, the quarterback coming out of high school who signed for $12 million by scoring highest on all the “key” metrics – arm strength, speed, athleticism, etc – is now riding the bench.
And the one whose scores on those same metrics made coaches and scouting experts go “meh”, has the highest QB passer rating in history.
Go figure.
But the miscalculations don’t end with the above examples. The “experts” were practically fitting University of Texas quarterback Arch Manning with the Number 1 NFL draft jersey before he even established himself as a college starter. But his college career has been, at best, disappointing.
In 2021, the “experts” raved about the top three picks in the NFL draft – all quarterbacks. But two of the three – Zach Wilson and Trey Lance – are currently riding the bench. Wilson has not completed a pass in an NFL game since last October. Lance has not thrown a TD pass since 2022.
So what, if anything, does all that mean (besides the fact that the “gurus” suck at predicting quarterback success)?
For one, it’ll make you pause to ponder the current system. Not long ago, when college quarterbacks, i.e. 18-and-19 year olds, started their careers, they were labeled student athletes who worried about playbooks, text books, and whether their dormmate snored.
Now, since 2021 and the dawn of the NIL (National Image and Likeness rule and most recently after its expansion in 2025 to allow direct compensation to athletes), the same 18 and 19-year olds obsess over “merch sales”, media and PR managers, and how many likes their latest instagram post generated.
God Bless free markets. But one has to wonder if this is the best path for kids. Especially when the same “experts” who struggle to identify tomorrow’s NFL stars are now attaching multimillion-dollar price tags to teenagers.
Here’s to cheering for the next “Mr. Irrelevant”!
